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I read your text 3 times to follow it. Your explanation is working VERY hard working with VERY NARROW definitions with your introduction of some possible logical leaps to make the connections. Not that I think you're being disingenuous, but it looks like a weak argument. Yes, its possible but all the stars have to align for your reading to be true. Its just not likely.
That argument is build upon the foundation of the 11th bulletpoint example. You skipped (I believe unintentionally) over the HUGE carve out in the IHRA has before those examples. That text is this:
"Manifestations might include the targeting of the state of Israel, conceived as a Jewish collectivity. However, criticism of Israel similar to that leveled against any other country cannot be regarded as antisemitic."
Source is the May 2016 definition as citing in the legislation
To me this looks like it leaves the door fully open to criticize the State of Israel for its treatment of minority groups inside its borders and out.
The danger is that by introducing the threat of civil or even criminal charges against those who are accused of being antisemitic under this strict definition, it will have a chilling effect on freedom of speech and academic debate/inquiry.
You should read this opinion piece by the lead drafter of the IHRA definition itself, talking about the dangers of Trump's 2021 executive order (essentially what this latest bill is proposing to enforce by law). In it he warns about the definition being weaponized, saying:
I mean people are being accused of anti-semitism right now because they don't want the Israeli government to finish its extermination of the Palestinian people. Its not a stretch or leap because it is happening right now. Its just not considered hate speech today to criticize the Israeli government.
Also, I don't care to put things like this up to likely or unlikely given the current make up of the Supreme Court, which is where this would end up.
"People saying" doesn't carry the weight of law, and thank goodness. Thats the difference.
Where is someone being accused of criticizing Israel facing criminal charges right now? Thats a leap you're making. You're saying that because some rando is accusing someone criticizing Israel's attacks on the Palestinian people that they're facing criminal chargers, that just isn't happening anywhere I've seen. If you have evidence of that I'm interested in it.
Well let's put a flag in this and keep track of it. There is a clear train if conflating criticism of Israel with antisemitism with the mainstream media's coverage of the genocide, in what I hear coming out Congress critters mouths, the banning of toktok, and in all of the coverage I see regarding the student protests.
I expect this current crackdown if free speech to be explicitly based in the conflation of Israel with Judaism and I see the passage of this law as a direct step in that direction. I hope I'm seriously wrong, but I'm too cynical to out it aside as being explicitly for this purpose.
No one really knows how if this bull becomes a law, and we don't know how that will be enforced or adjudicated.
This is where I am too. I certainly don't claim to be a legal scholar, and those that are and those that adjudicate the law in practice will certainly shape it, and any constitutional challenges that follow.