this post was submitted on 18 Apr 2024
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If the US passes aid for Ukraine Russia will have the ability to attrition a win eventually. You don't have to take my word for it either https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/attritional-art-war-lessons-russian-war-ukraine
At this point, an Ukrainian military victory is extremely unlikely. But equally, it would be expensive for Russia to capture western Ukraine, and even more expensive to hold it. So the most likely outcome is some sort of negotiated peace. At that point, wouldn't Ukraine get a better deal if they are in a position of at least some strength?
Russia doesn't need to capture western Ukraine, and I think it's highly unlikely they would try to do that. A far more likely scenario is that Russia will continue attrition of the Ukrainian army until it collapses. Then it will take over most of Ukraine, dictate terms to whatever rump state is left in western Ukraine.
There is no scenario where Ukraine is going to be in a position of any strength here. The longer the war continues the more manpower Ukraine loses and ultimately the worse the terms are going to be in the end.
It's also worth mentioning that whatever is left of west Ukraine will become entirely dependent on the west creating a huge economic drain on Europe at the threat of a huge refugee crisis if this state collapses. This is a nightmare scenario for Europe where the economy is already going into a recession.
But at some point, the Ukraine government will see the writing on the wall, and shift to some form of guerilla warfare. That's a lot harder to deal with.
I agree with the rest. I just feel that Russia will want at least a neutral buffer state in (western) Ukraine, and that they'll eventually offer some concessions in return for Ukraine not joining NATO / hosting NATO missiles / sabotaging Russian and eastern Ukrainian infrastructure. At that point, Ukraine might be able to get a decent deal if they still have some military strength and diplomatic support left.
The thing is that the current regime in Ukraine doesn't have much support hence why they cancelled elections. It's also worth noting that most people in Ukraine didn't really want to have a war with Russia. Zelensky originally ran on a platform of peace and implementing Minsk.
Guerrilla warfare requires support from general public who provide supplies for the partisans, hide them, and so on. I don't see that being the case in Ukraine. It's also worth noting that Russia managed to avoid this scenario in Chechnya already. In fact, Chechens are now fighting along side Russia in Ukraine. Looking at slides from this lecture that Mearsheimer gave back in 2015 is illustrative. First, here's the demographic breakdown of Ukraine:
here's how the election in 2004 went:
this is the 2010 election:
As we can clearly see from the voting patterns in both elections, the country is divided roughly across the current line of conflict. Furthermore, a survey conducted in 2015 further shows that there is a sharp division between people of eastern and western Ukraine on which economic bloc they would rather belong to:
What I expect will happen is that most people in eastern and central Ukraine will just accept being part of Russia going forward. Those who felt strongly against this either fled the country or died fighting because they were motivated to fight. Also worth noting that once it becomes clear that the war is lost there's going to be a huge backlash against the west, since lack of western support will be blamed for it by the hardliners. A lot of weapons that the west flooded into Ukraine disappeared. In fact, CBS did a study at one point that found that only just "30-40%" of the supplies coming across the border reached its final destination. There's no doubt that a lot of these weapons are now in the hands of various far right groups across Europe at this point. Ukrainian nationalist will undoubtedly link up with these groups, and once the war is over they will likely flee to Europe. It's entirely possible that Europe could start seeing the same kind of terrorism that we see in the Middle East after US flooded it with weapons and extremists.
I see. I know there is an ethnic divide in Ukraine, and ethnic Russians / Russian speakers will probably be okay going forward. I just hope whatever deal is agreed upon isn't completely devastating to the people in western Ukraine. The countries that until now helped Ukraine fight now have a responsibility to help them negotiate and get the best terms they can under their current circumstances.
Right, it is easy to start a fight. Much harder to cleanly end it. These ultranationalists will probably end up pissing off the EU and making things even worse for the people they claim to be fighting for.
The longer this war goes on, the worse the end result will be for whatever is left of Ukraine. What I think is happening is that Biden admin is cynically trying to drag the war out until the election is over.
Here is an alternative Piped link(s):
this lecture
Piped is a privacy-respecting open-source alternative frontend to YouTube.
I'm open-source; check me out at GitHub.
Lets look at the conditions inside of russia. Russia's air defenses are stretched very thin right now. And if you don't believe me, look at the amount of oil refineries destroyed, and the fact ukraine can strike 600 miles into russia.
Not to also mention, the only warfare russia seems to be able to do is meat wave tactics. For those who don't know, its sending hundreds of thousands of soldiers to get mowed down by machine guns.
And don't forget what's happening around belgorod inside of russia, russia is using border guards as if they were trained army.
Weird that we don't have any videos of hundreds of thousands of Russians walking into machine guns.
Weird how the nazi generals claimed the same thing, despite no mention of that in the extensive soviet records released after the coup.
Yes, let's look at the conditions inside Russia. The economy is growing faster than the G7, and Russia is outproducing the west 3x in terms of stuff like artillery shells. Meanwhile, there is zero evidence that Ukrainian attacks on refineries have actually achieved anything. Last I checked Russian oil exports are still going strong.
There's also zero actual evidence for the claims of meatwave tactics, this is just the racist asiatic hordes narrative westerners keep clinging to.
And not sure how Russian border guards repelling attacks at the border is misuse of border guards in your mind.
Maybe read and try to learn from what people with a clue have to say, as explained by an actual professional in the article I linked instead of clinging to your delusional fantasies.
Ah, yes, Vershinin, the first "first director of the Boris Yeltsin Presidential Library, from 2009 until 2018". Solid source.
Imagine being so lost.
Ah yes, Lt Col (Retd) Alex Vershinin has 10 years of frontline experience in Korea, Iraq and Afghanistan. For the last decade before his retirement, he worked as a modelling and simulations officer in concept development and experimentation for NATO and the US Army.
Imagine being so lost indeed.
I'm not questioning his experience but rather his objectivity. Something you should try every once in a while looking at the trash you comment here.
If you're questioning the objectivity of a former NATO officer with a ton of experience then you're just grasping at straws.
Care to provide sources? So far you only quoted RUSI and what he says about himself....
Oh wait, nevermind, I just realized I don't really care
Provide sources for what exactly? Are you questioning his credentials? Do you even know what RUSI is?