this post was submitted on 16 Apr 2024
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According to the report, the targets include an Iranian facility in Tehran or a cyberattack.

In a visit to the Nevatim base on Monday, IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said that the Iranian attack which was carried out early Sunday morning will be met with an Israeli response, according to Israeli media.

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[–] [email protected] 21 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago) (1 children)

Reading between the lines of a lot of the reporting:

Iran has had their shit kicked in by Israel during direct conflict, so they've been funding and training proxies to do their dirty work for ages now.

Israel saw an opportunity. A chunk of the Iranian military brass was in the same place at the same time - and most importantly - were outside of Iran. The catch was that they were meeting in an embassy, so making that meeting go boom would be a no-no. And before you ask yes, that is a technical term.

Figuring that opportunities like this didn't come by very often Israeli brass took the risk and made the meeting go boom. To minimize political damage abroad they didn't officially take credit for the attack. This is a fig leaf, but that kind of thing matters in international relations.

Now all that was left was to deal with the retaliation, which came in the form of a huge missile/drone barrage. While just about everything got intercepted, a few Israeli pilots have been quoted as saying that the volume of incoming fire was greater than anything they'd trained for. Even without significant damage on the ground it was a big deal.

Afterwards, Iran literally said "the issue is settled". No, really. They told everyone that it was time to start climbing back down the ladder of escalation.

So here's the real question: why isn't Israeli leadership just chilling out? Because you don't just get off the ladder of escalation, you climb down off of it. Publicly asking for a list of targets is pretty low key. It sounds scary, but is ultimately of little consequence. Every major player has their target lists already, it's just bluster.

If my assessment is correct the next step is a super public statement made by Iranian leadership condemning Israel (more than usual) and/or releasing some kind of damning intelligence if they have it.

EDIT: Hey, look at that the very next day an Iranian diplomat in London accused Israel of trying to draw the US into a war with them. Looks like they went with the "strong denouncement" route!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/16/netanyahu-aims-to-trap-west-into-war-across-middle-east-warns-iranian-diplomat

[–] [email protected] 5 points 7 months ago (1 children)

That is legitimately one of the most level-headed replies I've read here in the last few months. Kudos.

Two things I want to add:

  1. one of the two IRGC generals killed helped plan October 7th - one of the semi-official war goals is to kill every person who was involved
  2. Ignore the amount intercepted - that's not what matters for geopolitics. An equivalent escalation would mean Israel responding with 15,000 ballistic missiles and 30,000 suicide drones
[–] [email protected] 3 points 7 months ago

Glad to provide even a brief reprieve from the usual whack jobs.