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this post was submitted on 24 Mar 2024
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Yeah, because you can't prove a negative. He doesn't need to debunk it, only to provide an alternative explanation which is more likely. Occam's razor.
So was it a cart slap? No. Was the device and or cart faulty? No. Was the constructions nearby the cause? No.
We only know that something flipped the bit. So why not spice this freak accident up by saying that cosmic rays were the culprit?
I also bought into the bit flip theory but it was confirmed that the hardware was somewhat faulty which is an infinitely more likely cause than cosmic rays. There's also the fact that there aren't any bits that could be flipped which would perfectly reproduce the glitch.
The device was faulty though.
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Because assuming that is a way bigger assumption than something like "faulty hardware", especially since this guy has stories about other things that we know are faulty hardware.
There's inifinite examples of when occams razor doesn't hold up though. It's a useful tool, but by no means an end all be all.
Occam's razor won't get you to the correct conclusion for all possible combinations of truth values and evidence, but it is always the best process to follow. You might end up getting new evidence later that means you update your belief, even update it to believe in something which previous evidence meant Occam's razor lead you to dismiss that conclusion. But it helps you arrive at the best conclusion based on current evidence.