Predictions

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Falsifiable predictions are much more fun :) if you remember, add specific dates about your predictions (lemmy.ca)

submitted 2 years ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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2

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Polymarket | India Election: Modi reelected? (polymarket.com)

submitted 8 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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cross-posted from: https://lemy.lol/post/22844267

Need Opinion.

What do you think is the right way to play this bet in the polygon prediction market?

Is playing contrarian gonna give a huge pay off?

Or Is going with the market trends going to help make decent but sure shot gains of 4-5%?

By the way the election result is to be declared on June 4th, 2024.

I still see most people in his favour despite everything.

I personally don't like Modi much but as a business decision there are higher odds in betting in support of him.

What are your thoughts on this?

3

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Apple's Vision Pro lineup will be cancelled entirely by start of 2027. (lemmy.ca)

submitted 10 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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4

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5 years tech predictions (lemmy.ca)

submitted 11 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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After dinner time discussion, my gf asked me to make a record.

In 5 years...

10% of search traffic is paid.

Reddit is primarily a short form video website (like Tiktok).

5

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If Rick Bowness is the coach of the Winnipeg Jets at the end of the 2024 season, the Jets will finish bottom three. (lemmy.ca)

submitted 2 years ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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6

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Falcon 9 will still be in use at T+10 years after first Starship orbital flight. (lemmy.ca)

submitted 2 years ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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SpaceX predictions are fun...

7

1

No coup or regime change in Russia this year (www.metaculus.com)

submitted 2 years ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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At least, the community prediction is only at 24% right now. Personally, I'm at 60%.

8

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In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? (manifold.markets)

submitted 2 years ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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This market is very active currently. Bets are piling up for Yes and No positions, so there seem to be strong opinions on both sides.

9

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SpaceX will NOT put any human on Mars by 2030 (www.metaculus.com)

submitted 2 years ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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10

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Biden will be the 2024 Democratic Nominee (manifold.markets)

submitted 2 years ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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11

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Meatcel - in the year 2069, a zoomer who refuses to marry/sex an AI gf and insists on a "real" gf. A reactionary who reminces about the golden days of the 2020s. (lemmy.ca)

submitted 2 years ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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12

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the good judgement project - for resources on learning how to forecast well (en.wikipedia.org)

submitted 2 years ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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Or do it like a the naughty social media normie that you and cite your horoscope

13

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In 2028, large language models (LLMs) will still give confident-sounding-yet-incorrect answers to simple math problems (lemmy.ml)

submitted 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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For example, things like this:

Some models might be able to answer this precise question correctly, but they will still fail at many simple primary-school-level math questions.

More examples in my comment here.

and one more screenshot here

14

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With rapidly growing costs of housing, companies will start offering housing as a hiring incentive, creating communities similar to the "company towns" of the past. By 2050 (lemmy.ca)

submitted 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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And the worst part is that, with so many companies shifting to work-from-home. it will create a culture (especially for early-career workers) that's less "work from home" and more "live at work." You'll be on call 24-hours a day, reachable at all times. And, for early-career workers getting out of college, it won't even seem like a strange transition from college dorms and fraternity/sorority houses to company housing.

Not only will this lead to a culture where just living on your own at all is a major achievement, it will create a culture where workers don't own much of their own, because they have little storage space. It also means that leaving or job or (god forbid) getting fired or laid off will also render you homeless almost immediately.

Maybe I should shh up before I start giving these companies ideas.