Endless War

vows to bankroll opponent to Zohran Mamdani.

The benefits are entirely "controlling global oil prices/supply". With the US all-in on climate terrorism, control of Israel helps control regional powers that also profit from climate destroying energy and delaying transition.

So, the only benefit is not an actual human sustainability benefit. It's an extreme cost.

The more obvious direct costs are paying for all the weapons, and the resentment that will lead to terrorism against Israel's allies. The fascism directed against those who protest genocide, is furthermore a step towards more intense fascism.

China has asked/threatened Egypt to close suez canal to military ships. It has radar ships in Persian Gulf. Asked Oman to not cooperate on airspace. Flurry of diplomatic calls today including Russia readout of more committed support for Iran.

Israel is threatening Pakistan next.

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ca/post/46385717

Trump's single focus on Ukrainian negotiations was always Russia distancing with Iran, and a quicker victory/peace is an easy bribe for Russia to accept.

But, OP, suggests deeper Iranian miscalculation for an independent path.

Diego Garcia can be destroyed by 3 countries within range: Iran, Pakistan, China. A nuclear strike would just kill military and signal a "not fucking around" posture.

Fucking around and waiting is world's Chamberlain moment.

Whether US assists Israel's defense or attacks is a function of threats made against it.

The trade war BS gives US the power to stop that BS in exchange for G7 slave colonies supporting its zionazi warmongering genocide.

The US can bribe Russia with less Ukraine support. Can declare victory over China's fentanyl measures.

Apparently, US carrier fleet is coming towards Persian Gulf for clearly unfriendly reasons. Whether anyone explicitly/directly helps Iran eliminate it or Tel Aviv, or threatens to, determines course of war.

US retains bribery/extortion power to make world sacrifice Iran, I expect.

Closing straights of Hormuz is less precise than controlling access to that and Red sea. Exchanging military support for both access to its energy, and others.

Helping Iraq liberate itself from US is key to it replacing its US controlled treasury with new oil revenue. Europe would choose between US and Russian supplies, and so this would be yet another US extortion war vector on Europe.

KSA would still be able to get through Suez, but others wouldn't.