olmec

Notre Dame and Ohio State with the HUGE jumps up. That is the big shock here. I guess we just really value wins over Nebraska and Navy.

I predict Liberty will fall out next week. Just a prediction.

I view Army and Navy as being very close in my rankings. They have a 5 spot spread between them, which feels like a huge amount.

1. Oregon
2. Penn State
3. Miami
4. Georgia
5. Ohio State
6. Iowa State
7. BYU
8. Tennessee
9. LSU
10. Texas
11. Clemson
12. Boise State
13. Texas A&M
14. Notre Dame
15. Indiana
16. Pitt
17. Kansas State
18. Alabama
19. SMU
20. Missouri
21. Army
22. Navy
23. Ole Miss
24. Washington State
25. Liberty

All Human baby!

We are no longer cowards!! We finally realized Army and Navy are winning, and rewarded then greatly.

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Miami
5. Ohio State
6. Georgia
7. Iowa State
8. BYU
9. Alabama
10. LSU
11. Clemson
12. Boise State
13. Texas A&M
14. Tennessee
15. Notre Dame
16. Pitt
17. Indiana
18. Kansas State
19. Ole Miss
20. SMU
21. Missouri
22. Army
23. Navy
24. Arizona State
25. Liberty

Human poll. Quick overview. I try to make the poll a blind resume, as in I don't care about head to head. I prefer consistency over peaks (2 wins over a mid program will rank higher than a win against a top and a loss to a bottom. ). 3. If you are 5-0 or better, you get an auto ranking.

Just for fun, because the end was really hard, here are my next 5 out, not in any particular order

Illinois, Syracuse, Texas Tech, UNLV, Washington State

This was a fun week to try and solve. I don't love a bunch of my placements, but it sure is fun.

We are such cowards. No love for Army or Navy?

Utah is the big winner this week, going from "33" up to 25 all on a bye week. All teams should learn from this.

No, please poke holes in my poll. I spend time on it, but this is the first real year I have actually put pen to paper.

For LSU and Missouri, the cop out answer is that is the 25% of the ballot I give to supposed team quality. Realistically, it shouldn't have that big of an effect though. Those are 2 teams that, after looking at their schedule just now, I was surprised how weak all their opponents were . I feel a bit bad, because using my metrics, they should be lower. Maybe 3-5 spots each, some where in that range. The good news is, at least LSU will have a chance to make a point this weekend against Ole Miss. That game will make a much bigger difference than me re-evaluating.

Indiana I still feel fine on. Their schedule hasn't been impressive. I think the Nebraska game in 2 weeks is the first real challenge they will face. If they perform well, they will see a jump.

SMU was on the short list to get ranked, but with my rule of ranking 5-0 teams, they got cut. Kansas state is the lowest ranked one loss team in my ranking, and I would take them over SMU.

OK, where is your poll ranking them?

1. Texas
2. Ohio State
3. Oregon
4. Penn State
5. Miami
6. Georgia
7. Iowa State
8. BYU
9. Alabama
10. Boise State
11. Clemson
12. Ole Miss
13. Tennessee
14. Missouri
15. Utah
16. Texas A&M
17. LSU
18. Oklahoma
19. Notre Dame
20. Indiana
21. Kansas State
22. Pitt
23. Army
24. Navy
25. Liberty

A quick overview of my methodology. I’m sure you can find contradictions, but I do try to stick to this.

At this point in the season, I try to make the ranking 25% how good I think the team actually is, and 75% what the resume says. As we go on, the resume gets more bias.

A few principles that I try to apply.

1. If you are 5-0 or better, I’ll put you in. It is hard enough to get there, that even with an easier schedule, it should get you ranked. I do this for 2 reasons. First, I want to reward winning. Second, if greater 6 teams never get ranked despite what they do on the field, why bother to say they are apart of the league? Even if all these greater 6 drop a game, I’ll still try to put one or two of them up there, if I can justify it.
2. I try to use a blind resume, where you consider the resume’s content regardless of the name. The biggest effect that this has is that I effectively ignore head to head. You can look at my poll, and complain that I ranked Georgia above Alabama, and cry afoul that Alabama beat Georgia, and should be ahead. I don’t care, because Georgia has a better resume than Alabama. You can make the same complaint against my Texas A&M/Notre Dame ranking. It doesn’t change my results.
3. I value bad losses more than I do good wins. Again, going with Alabama and Georgia, I put more weight on the fact that Alabama lost to Vanderbilt, then I do that Alabama beat Georgia. I value reliability. If you can’t show up for the “easy wins”, then I will punish you much more than I will reward you for showing up for the big games.

I blame all the chaos on myself. I didn't have time to put together a poll this week.

I have 2 big takeaways.
First, we really don't have the clarity I thought we would 4/5 games into the season. We have such an even balance of presumed weaker teams that are undefeated, and presumed strong teams with a loss, that I can't make any of it out. Roughly teams 9-35 all have legitimate claims that they should be ranked in the top 15. I know that this is supposed to get clearer every week, but it hasn't. I feel more unsure every week.

Second, Boise State is is the most devalued team in our poll. That team looks very good right now. With the rest of their schedule, UNLV is the only ranked game I see the rest of the way. It is possible they don't move up very much. It really is a loss to a top 4 team hurting them (but I guess Ole Miss and Georgia have the same complaint right now).

You know, I thought we might get more consensus as we went along, but it seems to be getting worse.

My big takeaway is, the power 4 conferences are getting way more benefit of the doubt than the non-power 4 teams. Mississippi State being the prime example. Going 1-3, but being ranked higher than ever non-power 4 except for Liberty and Notre Dame.

I'm sure in a month it will be better, but we are really seeing some wild results here.

All human ranking here. This was a tough one for me. I feel like the top 11 or so is fairly set. You can re-organize them how you want, but it will be the same group. Then 12-18 are another group that I don't know how to separate very well. The rest is a total crap shoot. I have no idea where anyone actually goes. Washington State VS Boise State will be a really good litmus test to show where those teams actually are.

1. Texas
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Alabama
5. Tennessee
6. Ole Miss
7. Utah
8. Miami
9. Oregon
10. Penn State
11. Missouri
12. Michigan
13. USC
14. Iowa State
15. Clemson
16. Oklahoma
17. LSU
18. Notre Dame
19. Washington State
20. BYU
21. Illinois
22. Louisville
23. UNLV
24. Boise State
25. Texas A&M