I think that one thing you and other centrists are missing is that any kind of regulation isn't just a regulation on trans women, it's a regulation on ALL women. It won't be just trans women that will be put in a position of constantly having their genitals checked.
Be it for bathrooms, sports, whatever, you're opening us up to a world where anyone that fancies themselves an authority will feel empowered to sexually assault any women they want. That's what's at stake here. This is a women's issue, not just a trans issue. Hell, even men will end up getting harassed in bathrooms.
Meanwhile, actual trans people are going to by and large steer clear of segregated contact sports like they've always done, feeling the pain of exclusion and marginalization while deserving none of it.
Missouri got their anti-RCV proposal passed by billing it as an amendment declaring that non-citizens cannot vote. That's right, they did it by banning something that was already against the law.
Maybe the way forward for election reform is to put it as a footnote in a proposition declaring murder to be bad.