this post was submitted on 18 Oct 2024
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[–] [email protected] 20 points 2 hours ago

I'm sure this is totally unrelated to the $760 million in bitcoin which was just transferred from Tesla to unknown wallets

[–] [email protected] 15 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago)

Uh yeah ofcourse they dont actually predict the future. They do however punish people for guessing wrong which creates a sort of natural selection of people that predict well.

When you bet money on a bad prediction, someone else will happily bet against you with the same amount and take all your money once they are proven right.

Then you have no money and you cant bet anymore. So pretty dumb strategy long term. Someone using multiple accounts is not an issue because the limitation is how much money the person behind those accounts has.

There are similar huge bets in both sides. It will balance itself out soon enough. But generally predicting elections is a dumb thing to try tbh.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 4 hours ago (1 children)

Seems like a good time to take the manipulated odds and go for Harris. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[–] [email protected] 1 points 10 minutes ago

I’m not a big gambler but every now and again I’ll see a points spread of a football game that seems ridiculous on its face and will put down $25-$100, makes watching a game I wouldn’t otherwise care about fun. But I never bet on a game I actually care about the outcome of, afraid I’ll jinx it and will lose twice. This the only reason why I’m not hammering Harris to win right now