this post was submitted on 18 Oct 2024
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Another reminder that betting markets don't determine elections and are easily manipulated by bad actors (lemmy.ml)
submitted 5 hours ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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[–] [email protected] 15 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago)

Uh yeah ofcourse they dont actually predict the future. They do however punish people for guessing wrong which creates a sort of natural selection of people that predict well.

When you bet money on a bad prediction, someone else will happily bet against you with the same amount and take all your money once they are proven right.

Then you have no money and you cant bet anymore. So pretty dumb strategy long term. Someone using multiple accounts is not an issue because the limitation is how much money the person behind those accounts has.

There are similar huge bets in both sides. It will balance itself out soon enough. But generally predicting elections is a dumb thing to try tbh.