this post was submitted on 12 Apr 2025
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[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I agree with the lawyer that harassment is a bit of a stretch but it's not a good look to pester someone to change data you don't like (see also "don't believe the polls" from the blue team)

It's cope, and not something you see from someone who expects to win.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 20 hours ago* (last edited 20 hours ago)

SmartVoting isn't simply data, however. They have a "proprietary algorithm" that they refuse to share.

Not only that, but if the true goal of the site is strategic voting to keep Conservatives out of office, then you'd think that in a tied race between an NDP and Liberal candidate, with the Cons a distant third, there wouldn't be a strategic vote recommendation at all.

And yet, in a riding in that exact situation, with a NDP incumbent tied with a Liberal candidate yet to be named, it was recommending people vote for the Liberal up until a day or two ago (Hamilton Centre, Matthew Green's riding).

Then you start digging a little deeper and realize that the SmartVoting site is mostly (but not entirely - they have their secret algorithm!) based on the projections from 338. Which are reasonably accurate overall. However, in the recent Ontario election they under-projected the NDP's seat count significantly, projecting 16 seats, whereas they actually ended up winning 27.

I'm not a statistician, but that seems like a remarkable jump. If I had to guess, it's that 338's model is not capturing something about the NDP or their voter base, whether that's the party's ground game, incumbency, or some other hard-to-quantify aspect.

So I mean, if it were just data then sure, don't shoot the messenger! But the problem is more that the modeling and recommendations seem like they have real flaws, probably unintentional, but flaws nonetheless. And projections and recommendations can and will influence voter behaviour.

[–] [email protected] 20 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Let's hope we can elect an openly socialist leadership following the collapse. Get that CCF spirit back!

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Seriously they're just Other Liberal Party right now.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Blame Layton for the party creep to centrist. He wasn't a bad guy, but he did that so the party could win a federal election (which they would have had he not gotten sick).

Tommy Douglas would be rolling in his grave if he could seen what the CCF/NDP has become.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 23 hours ago (1 children)

True and then once they started modifying party constitution under Mulcair to remove references to socialism, I knew it was a done deal.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 21 hours ago

Yup. We are a social democracy and we're proud of that. The problem is the anti-'red' creep that some of us have adopted from America. Seems like we enjoy the healthcare, CPP, dental benefits, etc that the "social" part gives us, but many want the ability to deny that to people they don't like (often those with darker skin tones than us).

I believe in democracy, but I have a difficult time supporting those who would do harm to my neighbours by denying them the safeguards I enjoy.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

Unfortunately, given what I've seen from the party so far (and what I haven't,) I'm not suprised. I've seen almost no marketing or outreach, and what I have wasn't on their own marets, or even was outright deceitful. In particular, an ad that claimed that a vote for them was strategic and using an unrelated poll to prove it, which pretty much lines up with the attacks on the truth described in the article.

I'm probably still going to vote for them, but thats only because my vote doesn't matter, (thanks FPTP.)