this post was submitted on 20 Feb 2025
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Summary

NASA has lowered the estimated risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth in December 2032 to 1.5%, down from 3.1% a day earlier. The European Space Agency's (ESA) estimate stands at 1.38%.

The asteroid, 40-90 meters wide, could cause significant city-level destruction but not a global catastrophe.

The projected impact corridor spans the Pacific, South America, Africa, and South Asia.

NASA also estimates a 0.8% chance of the asteroid hitting the Moon.

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[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 day ago
[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 day ago (1 children)

The global astronomical community expects the odds of an asteroid to hit Earth in December 2032 to eventually fall to zero.

I love how they make it seem like some insider expertise versus knowing basics of how percentages work.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 day ago

I mean, without knowing what the number represents, it's not obvious why it goes up and then suddenly drops like this.

They basically predict a cross-section of places it could go through, which shrinks with improved data. If the Earth is still inside, that makes it's share go up. Eventually, it hits an edge and the share drops to zero suddenly

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago

The way the world is going, it might not be a bad thing if it hits us.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 1 day ago (4 children)

Everyone hoping there's still a chance, you need to remember... this is only a city-killer asteroid.

We need to hope for a much bigger asteroid.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 day ago

If the alien movies serve us correctly, this is luckily going to hit the USA; possibly Washington DC directly.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago

If it hit the middle of the ocean, it could be cool and nothing else.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 day ago

Would have been funny if it hit Buenos aires

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 day ago (4 children)

As long as it falls on the right city, it would do the entire world a massive, once in 500 years favor.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Unfortunately North America doesn't fall under the possible impact zone

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago

We have a few years to improve our asteroid deflection capabilities to change that

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 day ago

More proof that there's no god.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 day ago

There would be enough warning to get people out of the city.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 day ago

If it does, I think a bunch of new religions are going to pop up.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 day ago

Washington D.C. I hope.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago

There is this fun toy see/calculate the potential effect of any asteroid collision: https://neal.fun/asteroid-launcher/

If it hits any city, that is wiped out. If it hit anything else, chances are damages are moderate.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 1 day ago

So you're telling me there's still a chance

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago
[–] [email protected] 9 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Bets on it being totally ignored by the world if it turns out to be aimed at Africa?

[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 days ago

Africa actually does seem to be the most likely impact if it were to hit. The predicted impact would be along the equator.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 days ago

Is this the new seven minutes to midnight? We're 1.5% to asteroid.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

Can we please not post daily updates? This is still 7 years away

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 days ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 day ago

I am down to have monthly updates for the next few years, weekly updates through 2031, and daily updates throughout 2032

I just feel like if we do daily updates for the next 7 years when it's in all likelihood going to miss us, we'll be too complacent when an asteroid does have an impact trajectory

[–] [email protected] 21 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (4 children)

As someone who's played MMOs, 1.5% chance is actually pretty high.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 days ago

As someone who played Ragnarok Online extensively, 1.5% for a single monster kill means I will never find that item.

Not to mention cards’ .01% drop rate ugh

[–] [email protected] 10 points 2 days ago

As someone who's played XCom, a 1.5% chance of a bad thing (questionable) means it's gonna critically hit

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 days ago
[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 days ago

Dontgivemehope.meme

[–] [email protected] 9 points 2 days ago

Just give us the confidence interval and stop updating. We will know better in January 2029 once it has passed by and been tugged by our gravity and the moons.

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