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In all the countries that support Ukraine, the incumbent/ruling party lost votes in the most recent election.
(lemmygrad.ml)
this post was submitted on 09 Nov 2024
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I do think we are starting to see the dam break in France and Germany already. It's true that they're tilting right, but the parties that are gaining ground are the ones that are explicitly against the war. I expect that if either France or Germany came out against the war then the whole project Ukraine would collapse overnight because those are the two countries that really matter in EU.
True, if France and Germany bail it's game over, but i don't see it happening just yet. We're not getting AfD any time soon in Germany, we're getting CDU again, most likely either with FDP or even SPD again. And as for France, the centrists have managed to successfully defraud the left of its electoral victory. In order to cling to power they will likely enter into an alliance with the nationalist right, but there is no reason to believe that LePen would behave any differently than a Meloni or a Wilders. These right wing "populists" are all talk during elections but when they get power they just bend the knee to NATO and the EU. The dam break has to happen eventually because the deterioration of material conditions will make it unavoidable, but i think the time frame we're looking at is longer than some people hope. Not that it matters much because i think Russia is on track to completely collapse the Ukrainian front lines much sooner than that.
You say that as if it's even remotely a bad thing lol
It definitely wouldn't be a good thing, that's for sure, as an immigrant i am acutely aware of that. I'm just saying whichever way you view that possibility, whether you think it would accelerate us even faster into open fascism (though it's hard to argue that the current regime isn't fascist when you see how they fund+arm literal Nazis, run cover for a genocide, and persecute journalists and activist groups who dare to go against the accepted narrative) or you think that they are a wild card who may shake things up and possibly do a U-turn on at least the most self-destructive Ukraine policies if not put up some resistance to the NATO-EU Atlanticist project (highly unlikely imo, at the end of the day the right wing's "populism" is always fake and a cover for giving more money and power to capitalists), there is no reason quite yet to fearmonger/get your hopes up. What we will see is more of the same, more doubling down on sunk cost. The foot is stuck to the accelerator pedal and the car is heading straight for a cliff.