this post was submitted on 07 Nov 2024
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Politics
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Bernie would not have won in 2024. In hindsight, it seems clear that winning in 2020 was at best a booby trap. If Trump had won re-election, the Republicans would be grappling with inflation anger (since absolutely none of his policy preferences would have slowed it, if anything they would have accelerated inflation)
Now, as usual, the Republican is going to get credit for the hard choices the Democrat had to make in office and the vibes that "Republicans are better for the economy" will continue, unless his tariffs fuck everything up so quickly that even the oblivious can't ignore it.
Nobody ever polled better against Trump than Sanders.
Bernie also never faced Trump in an actual head-to-head matchup, so we'll never really know, will we?
I think Bernie stood the best chance at beating Trump in 2016, with the benefit of hindsight. I also think he could have beat Trump in 2020 (though, 2020 was a booby trap because there was no getting through COVID without some kind of economic downside). I don't think Bernie's message overcomes the simplistic logic at play in the electorate - "things didn't seem as expensive 4 years ago".