Ukraine

Maybe the EU gets its shit together... this could be for the good on the long run

I have one, hear me out: it looks like the current german gov will decide to give up and have early elections. Current polls suggest that Merz will become chancellor. On multiple occasions he criticized Scholz for his cautious approach and voiced his support for Taurus deliveries. Not sure if he will go through but I think he specifically mentioned Taurus so often and prominently that it won't be easy to back pedal now. So it's likely that Taurus (and with it the Kerch bridge?) is back on the menu.

(Imho he's quite a shitty politician otherwise, but maybe he can get at least this right)

Well, we don't actually know that the next administration won't support them any. We assume they won't because of Trump's attitude to Ukraine, but the republicans have been somewhat divided over the issue, and Trump just does whatever he randomly feels like, and sending more military aid does benefit the MIC that can pay politicians, so it possible, if unlikely, that they'd get some support from them. There's also the possibility of support from Europe or elsewhere in the world. Finally, while a Ukrainian loss without foreign support seems quite likely, the pace of Russia's advances and resource expendature are such that a win for them is no longer likely to be "annex Ukraine or make it a puppet rump state", but more "take a strip of land close to the current occupation line", in which case a stronger Ukraine has a better negotiating position and so may be able to give up less.

With Trump supporting Russia will be a fast victory.

Next aid will be for Russia.
Trump already helped Putin with COVID tests, why not give full support, no one can stop him now

There is a tremendous amount of mostly empty Ukrainian land left. If Russia wants it all, their casualties will end in the millions, even without additional US aid. We're not the only suppliers, after all.