this post was submitted on 28 Oct 2024
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My guess would be that they wa't to settle the frontiers as far as they possibly can to keep as much territory as possible with a cease fire that can become a frozen frontier. If Harris wins, they can ask for a cease fire, and then will the US and Europe deny it? If Trump wins, Russia can probably take the whole dombass rapidly before accepting a cease fire from Ukraine.
It's all speculation though.
I think a ceasefire will be denied. There was an unofficial ceasefire in 2014 with the taking of Crimea. A month later Russia invaded Donbass. Until Feb 2022, the frontlines were fairly fixed. Then in Feb 2022 Russia invaded Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Kharkiv while trying to take even more Ukranian territory.
A ceasefire from Russia only means they will be back to take more land later. That, and Russia's war machine is running out of equipment. Unless China suddenly starts supplying tanks and armored vehicles, in 6 months to a year Russia will be fielding horses for assults.