this post was submitted on 24 Oct 2024
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Very much still Max's to lose. Like... 57 points? If he DNF'd twice, absolutely, Lando could take it, but even if Lando and Oscar consistently 1-2'd, with fastest lap, the most McLaren could do, if Max places 3rd every weekend it's unwinnable without sprints (11pts a weekend, x5 weekends, 55 of 57 needed points advantage).
In reality, even a decent Max Verstappen can lock out this championship with ease. So long as Red Bull don't catastrophically tank his car for a few of these weekends.
Mechanical DNFs can happen to anybody. Statistically Lando has a higher chance to DNF based of a mechanical issue, since he hasnt had one yet. But as the old racing saying goes: to finish first you have finish.
I don't think that's how statistics work.