this post was submitted on 16 Feb 2024
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I don't know how you are proficient in russian history, but we have a thing called гонка на лафетах. At some point soviet administration grew that old they all died off in a decade, without coming up with a next gen of rulers. I feel like in a coming decade there would be a lot of funerals and the new chaotic 90s for Russia, Iran, that would be very painful for these nations, but it'd be another chance to start it right, at least as a lib democracy. People say I'm too dumb and optimistic, but there's still no successor to Putin and he's born in 1952, and the clocks are ticking. He and his friends are just to afraid to lose their place so they don't bother with that, meaning it would be a complete hell when they'd die one by one.
Выбери одно, бездарь=)
The thing with Russia in particular is that people seem to overlook the fact that it's decades behind its western neighbors in terms of societal and political development, which has been the case for centuries.
Having spoken to multitudes of people outside and within Russia, I do believe that the gap has shrunk rather significantly in the last 40 years or so. Despite the attempts of rapidly aging and increasingly more delusional people that currently comprise the Russian government, this gap seems to be shrinking further still - to some degree, thanks to the same people fueling the country's desire for change.
So I don't think you're being too optimistic or naive. I think you're being very observant and keen-eyed. In fact, I'd go as far as to say you're being a bit too pessimistic thinking that we're going to face another decade like 90s, for two reasons:
This framing sounds like great man theory, which is popular with liberals but not with historical materialists.
I call it institutionalized history, and yeah, history as a science was hurt by it up to the point we associate societal and economical changes with tzars, kings, presidents, ruling institutions who had no part in many oncoming natural changes. They didn't start things like industrial revolution, they just tried to acconodate to it. Still, the chronology of our school course of history is tied to them.
Yet, in that exact case, I think it's correct to tie the current regime to one personality or one group of people since they collected all power over the country in their hands. And them dying would definetely change the route of russian politics.
You’re better situated than me for understanding the current power dynamics in Russia. Here in Burgerland we’re always told Putler is all powerful and uniquely evil, like some cartoon villain.
Like any good cartoon villain, Putin has enough in his biography to explain basically everything about his character, at whatever point of his life - it just doesn't make the villain less evil and deserving of being removed from any sort of power and, hopefully, put to justice, with the former being imperative.
There are rumors that Putin is very sick. So it might be sooner than 10 years.
I think it's as copium though. He's very concerned about his own health, we have many proofs about that, and it's obvious he's a paranoic, but I don't think he's more ill than any gramps at 71, and he has the best medical support availiable in Russia. But yeah, I don't see him surviving another ten years. Not because of the said illness, would it be cancer or Parkinson's, but because his dick wiggling in Ukraine put many of his partners and their assets at risk, and his authority is wanishing with each new day this war lasts. I'd be very surprised if he'd die due to natural causes. Don't quote me on that, but if new reelection and a coming mobilization won't change anything, he'd have all chances for his bunker to be welded shut and flooded. Yet another sort of copium, if you think about it, but the one I personally can bet at, learning about a den of snakes he collected around him.
The media here have been saying he’s at death’s door on like on a weekly basis for the last two years. Pure propaganda.
Yeah. Our oppositional media bathed in that copium too. And the only thing that shit does is stopping EU\US politicians from proper counter-measures, thinking the problem would solve itself. No, Jack, it wouldn't.
that's interesting to hear from your perspective, thanks for the insight. When I read these headlines I always wonder what real Russians think