this post was submitted on 15 Feb 2024
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So a Cerebras wafer will be 10^6 faster for the same computation as now, for the same price, in just 10 years? Not after Moore scaling ended many years ago and neural hardware architecture has matured. You can sure go analog, but that's not the same computation. And that's the end of the line, not without true 3d integration.
It depends what you call AI.
True artificial intelligence likely requires quantum computing because there's some quantum stuff happening our brains and probably the smartest living human (Sir Roger Penrose) thinks that's where the secret to consciousness is hiding after spending the last couple decades investigating that after helping Hawking finish up Einstein's work
If you just mean a chat bot that can pass the Turing test, then yeah we can just wait a decade instead of developing special tech for AI.
I mean, if we really develop artificial intelligence before we understand our own consciousness, we're probably fucked anyways.
It'd be like somehow inventing a nuclear bomb before understanding what radiation was. We'd have no idea what we're creating or what the consequences of flipping the switch would be.
Do you know if there are, or if there are plans for a "new" Turing test ?
The turing test is a rhetorical tool by turing to outline his logical positivist beliefs. Turing did believe in its use as an actual test but it's not a discrete test, it's a test of hypothetically infinite time.