this post was submitted on 10 Sep 2024
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[Dormant] Electric Vehicles

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EV sales continue to rise, but the last year of headlines falsely stating otherwise would leave you thinking they haven’t. After about full year of these lies, it would be nice for journalists to stop pushing this false narrative that they could find the truth behind by simply looking up a single number for once.

Here’s what’s actually happening: Over the course of the last year or so, sales of battery electric vehicles, while continuing to grow, have posted lower year-over-year percentage growth rates than they had in previous years.

This alone is not particularly remarkable – it is inevitable that any growing product or category will show slower percentage growth rates as sales rise, particularly one that has been growing at such a fast rate for so long.

In some recent years, we’ve even seen year-over-year doublings in EV market share (though one of those was 2020->2021, which was anomalous). To expect improvement at that level perpetually would be close to impossible – after 3 years of doubling market share from 2023’s 18% number, EVs would account for more than 100% of the global automotive market, which cannot happen.

Instead of the perpetual 50% CAGR that had been optimistically expected, we are seeing growth rates this year of ~10% in advanced economies, and higher in economies with lower EV penetration (+40% in “rest of world” beyond US/EU/China). Notably, this ~10% growth rate is higher than the above Norway example, which nobody would consider a “slump” at 94% market share.

It’s also clear that EV sales growth rates are being held back in the short term by Tesla, which has heretofore been the global leader in EV sales. Tesla actually has seen a year-over-year reduction in sales in recent quarters – likely at least partially due to chaotic leadership at the wayward EV leader – as buyers have been drawn to other brands, while most of which have seen significant increases in EV sales.

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[–] [email protected] 11 points 2 months ago (4 children)

Imagine what they'd be without Biden's 100% tariff on affordable Chinese EVs.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Probably a decline as all other manufacturers selling in the US go out of business and hundreds of thousands of union jobs are lost, only for China to then jack up their prices.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Id like to remind everyone the feds bailed out fucking cruise ships

You know those things that are sooooo valuable to the economy. Pretty sure if they had a hard time adjusting the feds would give them a fat fucking vault of cash.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 months ago

Do you mean changing the law so that cruises launching in the US to other US ports (like many Alaskan trips) could still operate? The law that was originally meant to keep Puerto Rico down?

Because cruise lines were not bailed out by the US government financially.

Also, BTW, an Alaskan cruise is one of the better reasons to take a cruise. Absolutely stunning views.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 2 months ago

Id like to remind everyone the feds bailed out fucking cruise ships

Are you sure about that?

Also would you support our tax dollars going to cruise ships and/or people like Elon Musk just so that you can buy a brand new car? Why does everyone suddenly think new cars should be affordable for everyone in the country? I make decent money and always buy used because buying new is a losing proposition most of the time.

China isn't trying to save the environment or stop climate change. This is 100% about undercutting the market and putting everyone else out of business so that everyone is reliant on them. They do this all the time in numerous industries. This is the same tactic that US companies like Walmart and Disney do to destroy their competitors too. People like you either refuse to see through the ploy or haven't experienced it enough times to see it coming.

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