this post was submitted on 03 Sep 2024
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And that's basically nothing since generational performance improvements have long since gotten into diminishing returns territory.
The most significant part is probably that getting that extra bit of performance and power savings from a new process is where the most money is.
But for China wanting independence from sanctions, this will probably cover 90% of their needs, and in a few years, they may have caught up completely.
I think most people fail to appreciate how much of a powerhouse China is when they commit serious ressources to something.
One factor to keep in mind though, is human productivity only happens at that kind of speed if they (the citizens involved) feel like they are getting something back from the process. And Chinese disillusionment with their own economy is growing.
Replacing enthusiasm with desperation is far from sure to slow this down.
Both are strong motivators.