this post was submitted on 20 Aug 2024
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They are never going to recover. Russia is going to continue cycling downwards until the country comes apart. In 20-30 years everything to the East of Perm will be lost. What Russia went through in the '90s is going to be the "Good Old Days" by 2050.
They stole children early on. Im pretty sure the invasion was with the thought it would be easy peasy and human capital was a resource they wanted to steal along with other resources.
In no way am I condoning Russian behaviour by the following mathematical statements. People are not numbers, but sometimes you have to look at numbers.
They stole upwards of a few thousand children from eastern Ukraine. They have lost hundreds of thousands to combat. That equation would only have worked for them if they had won in three days and moved through Ukraine unimpeded. And even then, only temporarily.
If you need to use conquest to prop up your economy, it usually means you're in a spiral where continuous conquest is required to keep feeding the machine. See also: Alexander.
Imagine driving the country of Stalin into the ground and longingly looking back at the folden period of the country as that time between the purge and nukes. You know, under Stalin. Those were the good times...