this post was submitted on 08 Aug 2024
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[–] [email protected] 57 points 3 months ago (19 children)

Oh shit, they've actually captured the area and are holding it? That's pretty significant! If they can keep this up, then maybe they can force Russia to concede? ...Though any russian deal to end the war obviously won't be honoured, which does make it a bit of a conundrum. Still, this is a good thing.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 3 months ago (2 children)

I strongly believe that Russia is preparing a more serious response. They just were not prepared for this, so didn't have defenses in place. Better to retreat and cede some territory than wasting troops in a losing battle. Since their land is so large, they can still come back later and reconquer.

Also, Ukraine can't use that many troops to actually fortify the region, given that they are also under heavy pressure at the more southern fronts.

And, 130 square miles is tiny compared to all the territory that Russia got so far.

Well, I believe the biggest win about this is for morale. Russians get scared because the war is now in their country, and Ukrainians get a buffer zone.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 3 months ago

Yeah, I assume this is a dual purpose morale booster and demoralizerm Ukraine shows that Russias defenses are a paper tiger because they relied on threats and it will force Russia to respond with troops, either by pulling from the front lines or reinforcements. Either way it moves the fighting to Russian land and that will demoralize support in Russia.

Plus they can disrupt more supply lines and war manufacturing locations by going around the border defenses. They don't even need to hold ground, just be a thorn in Russia's side.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 3 months ago (2 children)

Also, Putin may need to divert resources from Ukraine and halt advances there earlier than intended.

Of course, if Putin drops a tactical nuke inside of Russia's internationally-recognized boarders, will the world care? And if so, how much? Could backfire on Ukraine a bit in the short-term.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 3 months ago

I believe any live use of a nuclear weapon would result in near universal sanctioning, including by Beijing

[–] [email protected] 14 points 3 months ago

Of course, if Putin drops a tactical nuke inside of Russia’s internationally-recognized boarders, will the world care?

Yes, they will care about nuclear fallout blowing across Europe at a minimum.

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