this post was submitted on 11 Jul 2024
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Do they need a "strategy" when the whole point of a primary is to find a suitable candidate?
Yes. You need to prove to me that Biden stepping out is better for Democrats and/or America than Biden staying in.
If your strategy is bullshit "I'll figure it out later", then sorry, I'm sticking with Biden for my support. If you can't even reliably tell me that you'll back Kamala Haris (or any other specificly named reasonable replacement), then that's proof of your lack of strategy.
This is too important of an issue to fuck up and turn into chaos just a few months before the election. If yall don't like Biden, then my strategy is for Biden to run and then resign in January, making Kamala President (and keeping the important technicalities of donations which are earmarked to the Biden campaign). Anything else has incredible amounts of risk tying up important money that's been collected for months. (Alternatively, if someone can assure me that Kamala will have the full support of the Biden campaign's resources if Biden leaves... I can support Kamala without a doubt).
Chaos is the right call. Predictability is how we lose.
Trump wins news cycle after news cycle because he is chaotic. The media knows the American public can't wait to hear every outlandish thing that comes out of his mouth.
We need as much chaos as we can generate coming into the convention, winning us news cycle after news cycle, whipping the base into a frenzy. Chaos builds energy and excitement. Chaos works for us.
What we can't have is another "Bernie or Bust" scenario, where we name a viable candidate too early, get everyone to fall in love, then replace them with unmitigated boredom. Naming a candidate today runs that risk.
The chaos of Occupy Wall Street in 2011 caused the Republicans to win in 2012, 2014, and 2016.
I don't think you guys are as good at chaos as Republicans. No offense. I'm betting on predictability. You guys think you're winning when in fact you're just turning the independents against you and killing your chances. Every fucking time.
Biden beat Trump. Biden got results. I'm still putting my trust in that over the random chaos that the far left asks for every time.
The problem with Bernie is that he's a socialist in a country that hates socialists. Yall picked poorly. We're not running to make progressives feel good (like Occupy Wall Street in 2011) only to have Republicans kick your ass. We're trying to beat Trump this year as priority #1.
I already said earlier who the alternative is: its Kamala Harris and only if some legal technicalities regarding Biden's campaign funds can be figured out. Can you pledge your support of Kamala Harris today with me?
There's some very large piles of money that need to be moved around and maneuvered here to support whoever the Democrats pick is. And a lot of that pile of money is signed and earmarked to Biden specifically. If Biden and Harris aren't your pick, what's your plan to do with the money?
Harris is Clinton circa 2008. She's the boring, predictable candidate that nobody really wants, but we have to pick someone and everyone already knows her.
Obama circa 2008 hasn't shown up yet. We'll get to meet them in about three weeks.
You've had 2016, 2020, and now the entirety of 2024 campaign season to come up with somebody.
Time is out. We pick now. Its Biden or Harris. You pretending like there's a 3rd option ignores the fact that fundraising season is over and that you'd permanently hamper the new candidate to not have money in time for the November election.
Lets say Biden resigns tomorrow. Where does the campaign cash go? Maybe (and I'm not 100% sure), MAYBE Harris. But its not earmarked to anyone else. So that just burns that pile of cash effectively.
So maybe before going into the 2024 election without any fucking money, give this a few minutes of thought and come up with a better plan.
Why didn't your hypothetical and imaginary friend show up in the Democratic primaries earlier this year? And why do you delude yourself into thinking that they exist?
Some strong governors have been floated as options aside from Haris. But I'm not seeing how the various governor candidates deal with the money issue highlighted over the past week. Biden resigning, Haris inheriting the money and then picking a strong running made might be the best path forward.
Can you agree to this plan? Of course not. You're resisting me. I know you won't agree to this. If that's insufficient, I'm pretending that Biden gets 25th-Amendmented on January 2025 anyway and Haris takes over. So I'm not seeing a major difference aside from Harris maybe getting a good VP pick to help her out this season.
Because you don't normally primary challenge an incumbent without a damn good reason, and we didn't have a damn good reason until the debate.
I won't agree to Harris now, specifically because Harris is another boring candidate. Let's see if she's the best candidate after the convention.
I mean, the main hope is that the Biden delegates basically get together and crown someone else the nominee.
The delegates are basically set since so much of the primary is done already. Having Biden drop out will force them to pick someone. (Without dropping out, the delegates may vote for Biden like they initially promised)
But we still have the big money problem, whoever they pick. Haris would be the leading contender of this process anyway just because of the money thing.
I'm not 100% sure if Harris can beat Trump, even if I support her personally. I just want the one who has the biggest chance to win and today that's Biden from all options presented to me.
Why do you keep bringing up the money?
The donors gave the money for a reason; that reason doesn't change significantly when we substitute the candidate. While a few donors may think otherwise (and can be refunded), the overwhelming majority are going to support reallocating their funds to the eventual candidate.
The hard part was getting the money donated in the first place. Getting it moved to the right candidate is a minor technical issue, not a serious problem.
Harris is a technically solid candidate, but she's a Hillary, not an Obama. The opposition has had 4 years to build a case against her; they will bring up everything at the most inopportune time they can. We need a fresh, high energy candidate, but (like Hillary), Harris is old news and boring.
Go cancel a Kickstarter and then tell everyone the team has moved to a new manager and everyone needs to switch their donations. And see how many people you get to successfully switch. Its only going to work if the new candidate is better than Biden. And you can't even tell me who is better than Biden.
Chances are, you're just a progressive hoping to bring down the party and warp it into your own mold. So anyone is better for you. But that's the problem, I don't trust Democrats. I'm not even a Democrat. If you throw this to chaos and try to get someone on the far left in I might vote for Trump.
Can you at least give me an idea of who you want in the top position? No. Because you know that risks tipping your hand. You've spent this entire discussion avoiding the subject.
I'm just saying: forget the delegates. Just discuss with me who you'd support. If not Biden and if not Kamala, then who? There's a few governors who people have made as a rumor (but I've made it clear that I'm quite concerned about the financials / hundreds-of-millions pledged to Biden's campaign). But since we disagree with that, we can move on anyway. Can you give me anyone who you'd support?
And if its Bernie so help me.
Not even remotely comparable.
A candidate who can win this without any effort is a 45-year-old combat veteran living and working in a blue, industrial state. They were born and raised in a red state, on a farm with large scale commercial solar panels and wind turbines.
That candidate may or may not exist. I don't know, you don't know. They may or may not make themselves known at the convention. But that candidate would peel off farm and military supporters from Trump's camp, without offending the Democratic base. Putting all our support behind someone else right now prevents us from getting that better candidate in 3 weeks.
We can pick one of the same, boring names just as easily during the convention as we can now, but if we pick them now, we don't hear about the great candidates waiting in the wings.
No, you won't. Worst you'll do is stay home on election day.
There's some leftist picks that will make me pick Trump.
It sounds like you got a good head on your shoulders at least. I'm not sure if I'm convinced yet but I can appreciate your point of view now.
EDIT: I should note that I'm worried about the money because its $240 Million. That's a lot for this portion of the race, and a lot of money to risk in this time where inflation has eaten away at most small people's savings. I'm really not sure if Democrats will raise similar amounts if Biden drops out now.