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Joe Biden is correct that violent crime is near a 50-year low (www.poynter.org)

submitted 5 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (3 children)

Start of leaded gasoline bans:

1970

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago

Correlation does not imply causation.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Roe vs Wade:

1973

[–] [email protected] 0 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago)

This was the research done by Freakonomics!

We estimate that crime fell roughly 20% between 1997 and 2014 due to legalized abortion. The cumulative impact of legalized abortion on crime is roughly 45%, accounting for a very substantial portion of the roughly 50-55% overall decline from the peak of crime in the early 1990s.

Podcast revisiting this research with sources at the bottom:
https://freakonomics.com/podcast/abortion-and-crime-revisited/

This is the revisited research paper showing the connection (PDF):
https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_WP_201975.pdf

[–] [email protected] -1 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago)

While yes, it's most likely not a significant factor in the drop in crime:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead%E2%80%93crime_hypothesis#%3A%7E%3Atext%3DA_2007_report_published_by%2C%25_decline_in_violent_crime%22.?wprov=sfla1

Systematic reviews / meta-analysis

The first meta-analysis of the lead-crime hypothesis was published in 2022. "The Lead-Crime Hypothesis: A Meta-Analysis", authored by Anthony Higney, Nick Hanley, and Mirko Moro consolidates findings of 24 studies on the subject. It found that there is substantial evidence linking lead exposure to a heightened risk of criminal behavior, particularly violent crimes. This aligns with earlier research suggesting lead exposure may foster impulsive and aggressive tendencies, potential precursors to violent offenses. The study concluded that, while a correlation between declining lead pollution and declining criminality is supported by research, it is likely not a significant factor in reduced crime rates, and that the link is generally overstated in lead-crime literature.

The study's implications point towards the potential benefits of reducing lead exposure to decrease crime rates. Such reductions could be achieved through initiatives like removing lead from products like gasoline and paint, water pipes and enhancing lead abatement measures in schools and residences.