this post was submitted on 23 Jan 2024
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It's hard to say for certain as these things are in constant development and refinement, but the broad themes are clear. It'll likely be a combination of bilateral currency swap deals, as was common practice pre-WWII, and multilateral institutions governing currency baskets or supranational units of account, similar to Keynes' proposed Bancor, and thus keeping international balance of payments within healthy and sustainable parameters.
The bilateral agreements are already starting as the US is no longer able to militarily or economically threaten anyone who doesn't use USD as their international unit of account. The second will take more time, but institutions like the BRICS bank and the Shanghai Cooperation Agreement are working in that direction. These institutions are based on cooperation and mutual benefit of all parties involved, in stark contrast to the US and its Bretton Woods institutions which make sure the US always wins.
BRICs is a mess. Call me when they actually can mobilize something significant.
I'm not saying America can't fall but there just is no alternative right now and likely not soon at all. When the dollar falls everyone else will fall before it and likely little places will boil to the top as history always shows. It will not be the members of BRICs or China or India. It will be some country is the shadow of the US similar to the US only overtaking England because they piggy backed off its fall
I asked before and I'll ask again. Why do you assume the USD must be replaced by something exactly like it?
What does that even mean? What will it be replaced by crypto? Time? Blood?
If currency is replaced by something other than currency the entire geopolitical and economic landscape we understand will be irrelevant and no longer are we talking about the same topic.
Otherwise, because that's how our economy has grown to work.
You're not asking a real question, you're overloading the question with a what if rabbit out of the hat, bigfoot nonexistent bullshit.
It's just really not happening, the USD is locked in.
All this tells me is that you haven't understood anything I've written here. Neither is this about which currency I use to buy groceries or which one you use to buy gas. This is about how international transactions between different countries and different national currencies are settled.
I never said currency will be replaced with some undefined non-monetary thing. I said that one currency (USD) will be replaced with many on the international stage. In fact it's already happening.
There is, believe it or not, a vast array of possibility between a single hegemonic currency linked to a single global hegemon and no currency at all. How do you think international trade worked for a couple centuries before the US organized its dollar to be the world reserve currency?
I agree that dedollarization will change our economic and political paradigms. I agree that a lot of the ways in which we think about these things today will be irrelevant in the dedollarized future.
If you're interested in how we got to where we are today, I recommend Michael Hudson's work.