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the argument comes from midterm election results where red safety states went blue when they were bombarded with pro-abortion political adds. this article from npr goes into a deeper dive and also has a link to the exit poll results from those midterm elections: https://www.npr.org/2024/05/02/1248599739/abortion-democrats-independents-republicans-voting-2024-election
additionally: presidential elections also usually go blue so a popular vote win is also likely for biden. (this is so well known that some red states like texas hold their gubernatorial elections on off presidential year elections to avoid this phenomenon).
finally: my goal wasn't to spread optimism; i was trying to share something that helps give me peace with our situation with someone who has expressed the same concern i've been having in a thread that the fediverse is trying to now trying to ignore.
I asked for what specific states are going to flip on abortion rights. Your article does not cover that.
the article that the i shared with you has a link showing the exit polls.
tldr: it all the states that voted blue where they were expected to go red; including georgia, pennsylvania, nevada, & arizona
All of those states were blue in 2020. None of those represent a pickup based on abortion.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/2020-actual-electoral-map
read the articles: they were expected to go red for congress and didn't, that's the point.
Ok so you retained those states.
Where do you get the remaining electoral college votes if WI, MI, and MN go red?
wisconsin's pro-republican gerrymandering is gone; presidential term elections almost always go more blue and will influence the outcome as it did in the last presidential election; and rfk jr. is around to soak up the rest.
So whats the path then?
https://www.270towin.com/maps/2020-actual-electoral-map
Use this and tell me your path to 270. You have to do it with out WI, MI, and MN.
If you can't do that, then stfu.