US News

It’s not about removing supply chain inputs. The US has no near term plans to cut off reliance on Chinese chemicals or other industrial inputs. However those are low value.

I don't agree with that at all. What China produces is absolutely not low value inputs. In fact, as the article notes, many of these are very specialized inputs that only China can produce effectively today.

I agree that US is trying to do protectionism to allow their own industries to compete. However, the reality is that US isn't that big of a market of itself. China is the biggest trading partner for most countries in the world now, and Chinese companies produce cheaper and better goods than American ones at all levels of supply chain. There's no real way US can compete with that. US can try to slow China's growth, but it's not possible to do that without slowing US growth down even more.

What I expect China to do is to keep building out projects like BRICS and the BRI. China is already doing more trade with the developing world than the west, and this trade will only accelerate. Russia is another big factor because decoupling from the west opened a huge market for Chinese companies.

US can try to form a bloc around G7, but it's going to be economically inferiors to BRICS. So, what we'll see with cold war 2 is the reverse of the situation during the first one. On top of that, Europe will likely be forced to overinvest in its military once Russia wins in Ukraine. This is going to be a huge economic drain on the west.