this post was submitted on 15 Apr 2024
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Ugh. It seems that realistically we're going to be wrestling with the suburban sprawl for quite a while.
Random thoughts: How much of this is the demographics of the population growth being dominated by young families (which is likely a fairly severe factor toward heavy car usage)?
It feels to me that the call to build out more and more public transport inevitably runs into costing and logistics issues (thus my top comment). The most logical way to ease traffic problems like this is to lean into 15 minute living, which requires higher density living in which a walk, bicycle or small electric vehicle can take you just about anywhere you want to go.
While there's plenty of higher density development going on, I'm skeptical that it's selling the idea well. How many of these residents are "shoe box" apartments in cuboid buildings which provide little natural sunlight or air flow? Look at a satelite image of european cities and look at the residential buildings ... so often you'll see that they have a doughnut shape and an inner garden, which provides natural light and airflow to most apartments, as well as more natural settings. Is car use being minimised in any of these areas? Likely not (as all the new residents need to drive places too!) ... so the case for a car-less living is just not being made any where.
I'd like to see a move to make the CBD mostly car free so that people can see it. The other day I was walking down Elizabeth during/close-to peak hour, and the pedestrians were moving faster than the cars, which meant the total movement of individuals far exceeded that of the cars (which were all mostly single driver of course!). Take ICU vehicles off a number of streets completely except for special purposes, basically as is done now anyway, and allow pedestrians to use and enjoy the streets. And then get some smart urban planning in the picture.
Unfortunately, I honestly think it's kinda over for Melbourne (and maybe Australian cities generally). Property prices are too high and precious, the legacy of the CBD + suburban sprawl is going to curse the city as it grows, the population growth seems an additional burden while trying to pivot, and its culture of urban planning and development seems just cursed (fed square, docklands, Flemington race course flooding, shoe-box apartments everywhere and various stories I've heard about corruption in some local councils in growth corridors).
It'a mostly being driven by new 'estates' pushing affordable housing out to bumfuck nowhere with sucessive government failing to increase infrastructure to suit. This is changing, but the rail's taking a while to complete - first stage was to streamline the amount of trains that could run (hampered by the traditional spoke design with the terminus at Flinders), then putting in more interconnectivity - both still in progress.
Tl;dr; we know and the dandrews govt was actually finally working on it. But it's in an established city built primarily on volcanic rock and 30 odd years overdue, so it's taking a while
I mean, in many ways transforming the topology of Melbourne is one of the reasons behind the suburban rail loop being constructed. Rather than having everyone go into a single CBD we will instead have multiple activity centres that have jobs hospitals and infrastructures that people gravitate towards instead of the urban centre.