this post was submitted on 13 Apr 2024
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I'm not sure why you think so. The US usually treats freedom of the seas as a pretty big deal. I don't think that there will be violent retaliation solely for seizing this ship, but I do expect American naval patrols in the region with authorization to fire on Iranians that try something like this again.
With how much of a complete failure the US is being at stopping Yemen's blockade, they'd have to be dumb as hell to try anything like that for Iran.
I think it's the other way around - the US is having a hard time suppressing the Houthis because there's nothing in Yemen that's worth blowing up other than the missile launchers themselves, which are mobile and easy to hide. Iran, on the other hand, has lots of valuable infrastructure.
US will have a hard time justifying a military attack on Iran over this.
I'm not saying that the US will attack Iran - I'm saying that the US will send ships to patrol the waters where this happened. There won't be violence unless Iran messes with them, but I don't see what Iran has to gain either from capturing a single freighter or from an increased buildup of American forces in the region.
Yemen was able to institute a blockade with far fewer resources. What makes you think Iran can't?
Iran is very much in a position to blockade the strait of Hormuz similarly the way Yemen blockaded Suez. Yemen already proved that US is powerless to stop the blockade.
Yeah this is a one-time retaliation that Iran can do to hurt Israel. If Israel provoked them again they're probably going to be forced to do something more violent.