this post was submitted on 23 Mar 2024
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The only evidence I've seen of anyone proposing why it's fake is based on a telegram post that focused on fairly subjective counterarguments.
They confessed that a "priest" contacted them while he was learning from religious education videos online. This is entirely within the MO of Isis for recruiting. Also, they weren't really offered a bunch in compensation, if I recall correctly they were promised a million ruble, which is only a little over 10k USD.
I mean, is there really another border that's closer and as porous? The only other legitimate option would have been Kazakhstan or maybe Georgia.
It's actually pretty rare to see suicide vest attacks outside of the middle east. High explosive material is a lot harder to come by and transport outside of the region, and you don't really want to be caught with one while you're on route. Plus within these organizations, they typically only have a couple people whom actually know how to build them without blowing themselves up.
Having a contact already in Moscow purchase a few black market rifles doesn't require substantial logistics. And from the videos I've seen from the scene, things were a madhouse, and security forces were scarce. It appears as if they just got back into a car and started driving. Not exactly a grand escape.
I don't really have a hard time believing this was a legitimate attack from Isis. The Russian security apparatus is already busy, and has less eyes on their prior spheres of engagement. It's not like Isis doesn't have or hold a grudge against Russia, theyve been battling them in syria for years now.
As i said, i don't buy it. And regardless of what we think, the only thing that matters is what the Russians think, and they aren't buying it either, neither it seems are the Russian media or the official investigators. They will decide which party they hold ultimately responsible and they will deliver an appropriate repsonse to that party in due time. The fact that intermediaries were used to try and insulate the real organizers of the attack from blame may work for escaping legal consequences in international courts, but they will not save them from Russia's retribution. The West can point the finger away from the real perpetrators as much as they want, Russia is not impressed.
I mean everyone is free to make their own assumptions, I just don't really see any logic behind your claims.
Well, of course. No modern government would let any tragedy go to waste. Governments will always utilize any terror attack to direct public support towards their immediate aims, even if it's completely unrelated. Everyone knows this, which is part of the reason it doesn't really make a lot of sense for the west to be involved, it's just more fuel for the fire.
Right, but is there any logical rhetoric, let alone evidence that supports your theory?
The explanations I've heard so far rely on western intelligence to either be incredibly stupid, or to be incredibly effective at playing 4d political chess. And I have yet to see any theory that rules out the possible motives or ability of a legitimate attack from Isis.
I don't think it's outside the realm of possibilities for the US to set this sort of action up, I just don't really see the motive. I mean, if this was about the Ukrainian war, and striking fear into the hearts of the Russian people, wouldn't it have been more effective to hire Russian partisan or Ukrainians?
There is also no evidence that it was ISIS, unless you take a terrorist group at their word. And there is a lot about the attack that is highly inconsistent with the ISIS MO and that would have been beyond ISIS capabilities to pull off.
If you're looking for rock solid evidence that will hold up in court you're probably going to be disappointed. But governments don't need that level of evidence to draw conclusions and to take action against the perpetrators.
There is no point debating this further. Everyone who is intellectually honest and not feigning naivety knows who was behind this. Some of those responsible have already gotten their just deserts, courtesy of a Russian missile. The rest will in due time.
I would say there's not enough evidence to come to a definitive conclusion, but there is still plenty of evidence. They were islamist from an area with a lot of Afghan migrants, they were speaking Pashtun, they claimed they had initially been contacted by a priest in a way common place for Isis recruiting, and all this prior to isis claiming responsibility.
How so? Their MO changes based on locality and available resources. In areas where weapons are hard to come by they tend to use knives. In places they can arm their agents with rifles they do so. The only other time there's been a confirmed Isis attack in Russia, it was fairly similar. Gunmen shooting up soft targets.
I specifically said to ignore the evidence. I just want a rhetoric that actually makes any kind of logical sense.
Seems like making that claim is intellectually dishonest..... How do you know? What line of reasoning leads you to make that claim with any degree of certainty? What possible motive would they have?
I'm not making any claims, or even refutting the fact that it very well may have been the west. However, I have not heard anyone make any rhetorical claims or claims backed with enough supporting evidence to make any definitive conclusions.
If you do have a rhetorical based motive that could logically explain why they would back this attack, I would genuinely like to hear it. So far, it doesn't really make any geopolitical sense to me.