this post was submitted on 19 Oct 2024
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American officials are trying to determine the source of the leak, which describes military drills and weapons placement, and how damaging it might be.

The leak of a pair of highly classified U.S. intelligence documents describing recent satellite images of Israeli military preparations for a potential strike on Iran offers a window into the intense American concerns about Israel’s plans. It also has U.S. officials working to understand the size of the improper disclosure.

The two documents were prepared in recent days by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, which is responsible for analyzing images and information collected by American spy satellites. They began circulating on Friday on the Telegram app and were being discussed by largely pro-Iran accounts.

The documents, which offer interpretations of satellite imagery, provide insight into a potential strike by Israel on Iran in the coming days. Such a strike has been anticipated in retaliation for an Iranian assault earlier this month, which was itself a response to an Israeli attack.

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[–] [email protected] 3 points 3 weeks ago
[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 weeks ago
[–] [email protected] 22 points 3 weeks ago (3 children)

I hope the US says good luck you’re on your own on that one.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 weeks ago

it seems that America will follow them into war with anyone

[–] [email protected] 8 points 3 weeks ago

My pessimism leads me to believe that the US wants this, and is using Israel to get it.

The Israelis seem a bit preoccupied.

[–] [email protected] 19 points 3 weeks ago (3 children)

Doubt it. The US has an even bigger hard on for Iran than Israel does.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 weeks ago

The US has nothing to gain by attacking Iran. The younger generation of Iran want change and the older generation that supported the Islamic Revolution are dying off. Attacking them would only consolidate support behind the government

[–] [email protected] 4 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

Yes, but the US's analysts know they can't win this type of war with Iran; a generic number required of troops thrown around for an occupation is 2%, though it's often much higher.

The US can bomb civilians all they want, but any strategic objective like stopping Iran from sending masses of balsa wood drones to overwhelm Isreal's defenses can't be done with airstrikes.

Iran has 92 million people, that's almost 2 million troops needed for occupation. Drafting a million Americans to enable an occupation would be political suicide.

Here's a whitepaper written by some brookings institute ghouls in 2009.

Note that when it was written, Iraq's counterinsurgency was considered a success, drones weren't a thing, and it assumed Iran wouldn't close down the strait of Hormuz.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 3 weeks ago

Unfortunately, yeah…sigh

[–] [email protected] 47 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Fuck me, I'm tired of this shit. Sure let's just make a clusterfuck bigger and drag another nuclear capable (?) country further into the conflict. Fuck off you dumb mf's. Yes the attack on Israel was terrible, but don't try to hide your (Netanyahu's) faults by starting wars and killing other people. And don't let me hear the "they started" argument, you look like fucking childeren.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 3 weeks ago

in for a penny, in for a pound.

if you've got to buy bacon, you might as well buy the whole hog.

[–] [email protected] 32 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

a "leak" of something that they've been saying they are going to do for weeks.

heck of a job, NY times. Way to catch those startling leaks.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Thea leak is not the "that" it is the "when" and "how", which in military context are extremely vital information.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

I mean, thats not detailed in the article anywhere but you may be right. If you're adding detail maybe add a link to what you're asserting?

[–] [email protected] 6 points 3 weeks ago

The western articles are deliberately vague, so as to not get into legal trouble.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/19/politics/us-israel-iran-intelligence-documents/index.html

Another document says it is sourced to the National Security Agency and outlines Israeli air force exercises involving air-to-surface missiles, also believed to be in preparation for a strike on Iran. CNN is not quoting directly from or showing the documents.

But it is clear, that these leaks must have contained some more detailed information of how strong the strikes are planned to be, which weapon systems are planned to be used and so on.

For the "when" that is always flexible within reason.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

I mean it tells us it's both more than empty rhetoric and going to happen relatively soon. Not the most surprising of information, but not pointless either.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 weeks ago

Did anyone seriously think it was only empty rhetoric after Iran's missile attack?

[–] [email protected] 72 points 3 weeks ago (3 children)

Great, another destabilization event in the middle east that the US will have to get mixed in. This shit is so tiring. Fuck off Israel.

[–] [email protected] 23 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

You are mixed in it by proxy already. Without the support of the US Israel would not have gone as far as it has.

Leaks like this are intentional and put out there to give fair warning that they can see what your doing.

As its a US election year don't expect action until after November; when Biden either withdraws military support (most likely won't happen), punches the sanctions button super hard, or pushes for a major change in the dynamic in some way.

No matter the option the next president inherits a shitshow of a problem.

[–] [email protected] -2 points 3 weeks ago

at least 20m immigrants

[–] [email protected] 12 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

Israel has to drag the US into another great war before the election.

But instead of preventing that, the Biden administration stationed some more US soldiers in Israel, so that an escalation can hit some of them and give justification for the US to join in.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 3 weeks ago

Israel has to drag the US into another great war before the election.

As though we're being dragged. Given the current administration, we're joyously frolicking into war along with our best buddy Netanyahu with the Turtles' "Happy Together" playing in the background.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 weeks ago

War always favours the incumbent at election time, so the cynic in me thinks the US is dragging its feet quite purposely.

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