The lower the aid support from the west, the less tact Ukraine has to show when going after international trade targets like oil and gas infra. At some point they will start impacting world oil prices.
this post was submitted on 28 Jan 2024
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There are mystery fires in Russian oil and gas facilities since the start of the war.
The difference is that the US has increased oil production a lot and OPEC+ is cutting. So if Russia can export less oil, the likely response from OPEC+ other then Russia is to not cut production as much and cash in. A year ago the EU has banned most oil imports from Russia and that shock is mostly worked through now. Also at -10°C oil stops flowing easily and at below it it starts to freeze. So for a lot of Russian oil infrastructure damage is especially bad atm.
Which could very well be the reason they held back in the past; out of consideration for oil and gas prices affecting their Western friends. Now that the biggest friend seems to have abandoned them (likely until November), that consideration is worth a lot less, weighing it against strategic benefits from reducing Russian reserves and income.
The cynic in me sees the US becoming a major oil and gas exporter due to the high prices thus benefitting from high oil prices. And the Russian army Beiing ground down damaging the combat potential and demographics in Russia long term. India and china buying cheap Russian Oil and gas, price gouging the Russians as they have no other big buyers. All global arms manufacturers Dee governments ramping up military spending. Meaning that the longer this all drags out the better it is for many countries.
the US becoming a major oil and gas exporter
This is a common misconception - we're already the oil producing gorilla. Oil, both unrefined and refined, have been the top exports of the US for years now - well over a decade. We are the largest global producer of oil - by a huge margin - and have been for years. In 2022 we were almost 19% of the global supply - producing 50% more than each #2 Saudi Arabia and #3 Russia, and more than the next 4 countries combined.
The conservatives in the US like to say that we have to drill in an attempt to become energy independent, but we send much of our product to higher paying markets outside of our own border. Our only imbalance is in the mix of refinery capability and domestic supply type (light/heavy/sweet).