this post was submitted on 19 Jun 2024
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The press conference is currently still live so this was the best short video I could find on the topic.

To begin, I'm absolutely against this proposal, but I want to see a discussion - hopefully a constructive one - between Aussies (comments are always turned off for Australian news on YT) to gauge some idea of how people generally feel about the idea.

Fire off.

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[–] [email protected] 11 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

This policy is not genuine. The intention is to delay or destroy fossil fuel alternatives to protect fossil fuel investments. If it creates political division and an impression of leadership then it is icing on the cake. I would expect the coalition to become increasingly divided if this was ever realistically pursued. Coalition voters do not want to foot the bill for this idiocy. The market has already voted. Renewables won on time to market and ROI.

For context I am not opposed to nuclear power generation at all. There has been a lot of misinformation about safety and waste for generations that has poisoned debate and I would like to see a more rational debate. I think it irresponsible for countries like Germany to turn away from nuclear and create huge energy security issues as well as increased emissions.

Carbon emissions are a global problem and each country has a responsibility to address it as effectively as they can. We can support nuclear power by supplying uranium and it doesn't matter for carbon reduction if the reactors are in Australia or overseas.

Our construction costs are very high and we don't have local expertise. Our research reactor was designed by Argentina. As much as some of us would like to see nuclear power come to Australia it is fantasy economics.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 months ago

I don't know how much you know about Germany, but energy security is not a huge problem over there. Over 60% of generated electricity is now coming from renewables. Nuclear peaked as early as 1995 (30%) and has been declining ever since. At the same time, Germany is steadily reducing its dependency on Russian fossil fuels.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 3 months ago

It’s ridiculous. We are absolutely in the drivers seat to be a world leader in renewable energy and out of touch politicians want us to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in nuclear power stations like it’s the 1950s and we don’t have any other alternative.

Like every other government project there will a cost blowout, and it will overrun so by 2040 we’ll have a handful of half built nuclear reactors and the budget will be a couple hundred billion in the red.

We don’t have the expertise to build or run nuclear power stations, so we would have to import all of that knowledge and expertise until we can skill up. More money.

We have the landmass and the coastline to support solar, wind and wave generation. It will be far less complex, cheaper to build/maintain, we’ll be able to diversify energy sources and there is no toxic byproduct.

The Liberals fucked the NBN, fingers crossed they don’t fuck our energy future as well.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I think we should have done this 20 years ago. Not kicked the can down the road.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 months ago

Sure, but if we'd started 20 years ago it would have taken 20 years to build!

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago

Have a look at this breakdown of the NEM.

The black parts are coal. The blue bars are gas.

[–] [email protected] 22 points 3 months ago (1 children)

The thing is, if Labor had announced such a completely undercooked policy - no timelines, no validation, lots of contradictions, and most importantly, no costings whatsoever - the media would be collectively crucifying them. And I'm not talking about the polite way The Guardian or The Conversation are dissecting the policy and bringing counterpoints. No, it would be open season in the most derogatory and aggressive language possible.

The fact that Dutton can bring this to a press conference and not get laughed out of the room is just utterly sad.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

I just saw an opinion piece by Chris Kenny in the Australian whinging that the "majority" of the media isn't giving Dutton a free ride on nuclear. Bro you are the majority of the media. ABC and the Guardian have much smaller audiences

[–] [email protected] 0 points 3 months ago (2 children)
[–] [email protected] 4 points 3 months ago (1 children)

fwiw Sabine has a history of commenting outside of her area of expertise and having some very bad takes.

She's an astrophysicist. Listen to her closely when she's talking about what's going on in space. But her comments on other subjects such as climate, trans rights, and, yes, nuclear energy, should be taken as those of a random interested layperson. Maybe they're right from time to time, but they don't deserve any special consideration.

In that video, for example, she herself admits to ignoring the planning stage, and she's only talking about countries that already have large nuclear industries. Australia has no nuclear expertise to begin with, so it's guaranteed to take a lot longer for us than it does in places like Germany and America. And even then she ends up admitting it's at least twice as expensive as alternative options. She tries to downplay this by making a joke about astrophysics and orders of magnitude, but here on Earth that's a big difference, and that's in the best case.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago (2 children)

I think it's a well balanced and well researched video. I don't think she concludes that nuclear is a clear winner. And in our case it may not make sense. But both sides are guilty of cherry picking facts to fit their narrative.

The only reason I can think of to go nuclear is if renewables can't meet our power needs. I think it's a hard problem for the grid to manage distributed power generation in such varying amounts. Sometimes the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow enough. Can batteries fill the gaps? I hope so. But I wouldn't be opposed to a small bet on nuclear at the same time.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 months ago (1 children)

@DavidDoesLemmy @Zagorath This type of “small bet” would cost 10x more than the same bet on batteries and grid upgrades. The nuclear option is nothing more than a massive carbon tax, except this time it’s a nuclear tax, and it’s funding the nuclear instead of reducing it.

Every time someone proposes to spend NBN levels of money, or multiples of NBNs, ask yourself what the coalition would say if they were against it.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I think you misunderstood me. The small bet I was referring to is not the coalition's plan. It would be more money to research next generation reactors.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 months ago

@DavidDoesLemmy oh just research? I can't see any harm in running experiments if they're for thorium or fusion. But the real billions need to be spent now, on batteries & factories for batteries. We can be a big player exporting these ... this decade! If we had the courage.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 3 months ago

@DavidDoesLemmy @Zagorath Here's an article about a company named RedFlow, that has sold its fourth grid-scale long-duration zinc bromine flow battery to California:

https://reneweconomy.com.au/redflow-tapped-as-preferred-battery-provider-for-a-fourth-major-california-project/

Where's RedFlow based? Brisbane.

An alternative to bromine flow batteries is grid-scale lithium.

And where is one of the world's largest lithium minjng regions? Western Australia.

The Coalition's policy is to ban any further investment in grid-scale batteries from RedFlow or with WA lithium, along with banning further investments in wind and solar.

Instead, it wants to hand roughly half a trillion dollars to largely foreign-owned multinationals to build nuclear power plants in Australia.

Assuming the Coalition can deliver 7 large-scale first-of-its-kind infrastructure projects on time and on budget in Australia, it will take 10 to 15 years to build them. In the meantime, Australia will continue burning coal and natural gas.

And all this for an energy source that costs substantially more per megawatt hour than renewables, coal, or gas.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 months ago

Whats the link?

[–] [email protected] 14 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

By the time these are built, you'll have hugely cheap and efficient batteries and solar panels.. Even solar windows and roof tiles

Furthermore, nuclear is expensive anyway, so everyone will still get solar and undercut it. Day #1 of Game theory. In fact, similar to NBN, there is a very real chance solar companies will spring up and undercut it, so we have another lib NBN.

Finally, why would anyone want a centralised power grid which is operated and run by a single company.

It's a stupid idea.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago

If you don't know, vote no!

[–] [email protected] 5 points 3 months ago

I mean, it’s one way to solve the Gippsland problem: abandoned town tours after the private sector RBMK’s the fuck outta Traralgon. Because let’s be super clear here: private industry has a dog shit safety record, and IF the thing gets build (it won’t) they’ll build the cheapest fucking reactor they can. If the government try to regulate (they won’t) it’ll be too cost inefficient to work (it already is) so we’d gonna end up with an industry that’d make a Soviet engineer worried!

[–] [email protected] 19 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Too slow to build, too expensive, and entirely unsuited for a renewable heavy grid because the economics require it is left on at all times. And that renewable heavy grid will happen even if they ban all further renewable rollouts, simply from individuals and businesses adding more panels and batteries. Is the grid going to curtail all of that solar energy just so nuclear can be left on?

The whole thing is a transparent attempt by the fossil fuel industry to delay the renewable rollout for as long as possible, just so they can make a few more dollars. And the Coalition are ready and willing to do their bidding.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Existing nuclear tech is dramatically more expensive than every competing low carbon power generation alternative and will never have any place in Australia.

Future nuclear tech (be it fission or fusion) may be a different story, but our power plants are at end of life so we need new power gen now, the world is dying so we need carbon neutral now.

We can't sideline this for 20 years to wait and see what happens, the strategy should be the roll out renewables to the point where the grid doesn't need any major changes. When we hit the point where the grid does need big investment, reassess available alternatives. If nothing has changed, roll out the grid changes and more renewables or if fusion drilling geotehermal or nuclear or whatever has come viable work it out then.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 3 months ago (2 children)

I think Australia should be investing heavily in nuclear. The cost doesn't make sense for the private sector to bear, but the govt can afford it as long as it doesn't take away from renewable investment like the libs are proposing here. Future debt is easier to solve than carbon emissions.

We need large scale base load power generation to fill in the gap that electrification of everything will bring. Electrical demand will increase as we replace fossil fuel for heating, cars and transport, etc...

[–] [email protected] 7 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Thing is, Renewables are already cheap. By the time Nuclear is built, batteries and solar will be hugely cheaper than the price they are now (and in 10 years, its reasonable to expect more than half the price again).

The same thing that happened to NBN will happen to nuclear (basic Game theory). With NBN, competitors undercut the NBN with 5G, because FTTC and FTTN was so bad, and it wasted everyone's money.

In this case, if they start building, everyone knows that power costs will be expensive, so renewable energy companies will target the prices, and encourage people to install solar and batteries anyway.. If batteries are 1/5 of the price they are now, everyone will simply install 5x more batteries, more panels (because they'll also be more efficient and cheaper than they are now, and work during worse conditions) and remove themselves from the grid. From a game theory point of view, Solar/batteries have a 10-15 year head start and are already cheaper. At the moment 12kwh seems to be the common capacity for batteries.. However, if batteries drop a lot, 30-40kwh might be the normal. And it's likely by the time Nuclear can be built that Lithium will no longer even be the norm for batteries (or if it is, they'll probably be solid state and low risk). Sodium batteries were already introduced last year and are 25% cheaper instantly. Battery density doesn't matter for houses (only cars), which really opens up options (all that matters is upfront cost and $ per kwh)

I bought my 6.6kw panels maybe 3 years ago, and 10kw is apparently already cheaper. If I wait 5 years, 15-20kw will probably be cheap (and I have more than enough roof space, so the only thing limiting me would be weather the power company allows it)

I have no idea why anyone would want a centralised grid. Last major power outage here in Victoria during storms was triggered because Loy Yang coal fell offline, and non-solid state power generation takes ages to come back online (it needs to sync up to the grid). Solar and batteries sync up immediately, so if its available, they will always beat Nuclear, and nuclear will simply be sitting there burning rods increasing our taxes and power prices (because nobody wants to use it, and its ultimately taxpayer money).. Similar to what happened with NBN (they ended up having to replace a lot of the copper anyway, and now yet again, they've had to upgrade to fibre)

If nuclear could come online tomorrow, it would make sense simply to get rid of coal. However Nuclear is basically playing a game where the competition has a 10 lead, and any innovation can be introduced to the market instantly. With Nuclear, whatever we start building now, we're stuck with. You can't simply just start incrementally updating parts

[–] [email protected] 10 points 3 months ago

Link the east and west coast grids to let afternoon solar on the west coast flatten the evening east coast peaks, pick a big old chunk of desert in South Australia for wind and solar, throw in a few gigabatteries and tart up some hydro systems, done.

Probably only be $10-15 billion or so.

[–] [email protected] 17 points 3 months ago

The LNP could not build car parks.

There is zero chance of this happening even if they got into power, controlled the Senate and had the individual States green light it.

[–] [email protected] 19 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (2 children)

If nuclear was so brilliant the private sector would have done it already. They haven't because the cost far outweighs the benefit.

And as far taxpayer intervention goes to prop it up I just don't see any compelling evidence to suggest investment in nuclear will give you better bang for your buck than renewables.

In some countries without much wind, sun and waves nuclear might make sense provided they could cheaply get uranium and dispose waste cheaply. That's not Australia and we have options.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago

Not taking sides here, but the private sector couldn't have done it because laws specifically prevent them.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago (1 children)

better bang for your buck

No, you'll definitely get bang with nuclear 💥💥💥

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 months ago

Lol ba boom! ching!

[–] [email protected] -3 points 3 months ago (2 children)

Nuclear is fucking awsome and had the ability to fix our energy issues. There is strong evidance that the oil corporations are actually responsible for manufacturing nuclear fear narrative because it poses an actually economically viable alternative.

Thats not to mention the CSIRO who access tally forgot to include the most economically viable nuclear energy method of there analysis of "all" energy production methods. So much for independence.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago (1 children)

In 3 years, solar panel cost has mostly dropped in half (you can buy a 10kw system for the same as 6.6 a few years ago). Battery cost dropped 25% over the past year.

Nuclear can't dispatch any power (incrementally or otherwise), until its fully built. Nuclear is also expensive power, and it can't be dispatched as quickly or cheaply as solar/batteries (so the nuclear power station will remain offline). Don't forget that generators need to sync to the grid fully, and can even lose sync and take hours to come back online (which happened to Loy Yang recently, and there were huge blackouts in victoria). When more despatchable power is needed, batteries will win EVERY time (because its cheap and instant).

Its reasonable to think that even 40kwh batteries will be cheaper and safer than even 10kwh batteries too and much higher efficiency solar panels (and possibly solar windows), so people will get off the grid and can have days of solar eclipse too.

Battery capacity is limited by cost still.. It won't be in the future (don't forget, residential is about $ per kwh, NOT density)

One thing that is also misunderstood, is that panels still also produce power when its cloudy too.. Solar panel efficiency in 10 years will increase rapidly, and this will only improve..

Nuclear is like an average olympic athlete who isn't allowed to start a race for 10 years. Sure it looks competitive now, but there are so many other athletes around, that by the time Nuclear gets to the starting line, the other athletes will be finishing.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 3 months ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

So you propose building a reactor that doesn't have anything actually working beyond demonstration reactors yet?

It still has many of the same issues coal and gas has:

  1. Its still centralised. The power companies can still rip us off.
  2. Solar is already cheap and already only takes 4 years to pay off. The Government would have to subsidise the power during the construction period to prevent people moving to solar. And, Solar is effectively free after it has been installed
  3. It STILL needs instantly dispatchable power. You can't just turn on a generator. You need to spin it up to the correct speed, and it needs to be in the same phase. If its out of phase, the generator jumps forward or backwards and damages itself.. Safety circuits will kick in. Loy Yang's kicked in during the storms. Nuclear will likely have the same issue.
  4. It doesn't solve the unreliable power in Rural areas. Whereas, solar, wind and batteries can because they can effectively treat it more like a "microgrid", with less central points of failure.. ie, instead of centralising the batteries, scatter them in various areas.
  5. Whilst there is reduced radiation, and its cleaner than Coal, you STILL have radioctive byproducts that will last ages. Ultimately, it doesn't matter how well they're stored, there is always a risk they'll end up in the water table and not secure and it will be expected that a future generation will likely need to use excess energy to convert the radioactive materials to non-radioactive (somehow)

The only real problem it solves is that its more reliable than solar, and cleaner than coal. But.. In two and a half years, solar panel efficiency also increased by 5%. So, in 10 years, that could be a 20% efficiency increase too.. And in 6 years, the cost halved.

In the unlikely case the thorium plant does need to be shut down (natural disaster as an example, similar to Fukashima), we're basically screwed. Microgrid's wouldn't have this trouble.. Also, it basically requires that we just do nothing about the pollution for 10-20 years whilst they're building it, or the extra power requirements we'll need to transition to non-fossil fuel cars.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 3 months ago (2 children)

Nuclear is literally the most expensive way to generate energy and no amount of liquid salt or SMR hallucinations can come even close to fixing that problem.

You don't need to create fear of nuclear, it's a bad choice all by itself.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 3 months ago

Liquid salt is good for small heigh density systems mainly submarines. SMR is bullshit and far more expensive that other reactors (mainly due to the lack of expertise or good designs available). SMR is the silicon valley tech bro bs reactor. We gotta stop fuckin around and go to Japan or France and be like hey here's a couple billion we like that one put it here.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 3 months ago

I might be reading to much in to the previous commenters use of the word had. But you're at arguments make a lot more sense today than 30 years ago.

It certainly was fear that stopped Australia from building a nuclear industry in the 90s. It made a lot of sense then. Today, it's hard to see it anything more as a diversionary tactic.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 3 months ago

It makes no economic sense. Fucking idiot.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 3 months ago

Even when in power and offering cash incentives, the LNP couldn't convince the power industry to extend coal power plant lifetimes or build new generators. Renewables have already won the free market, they will likely never be beaten in our lifetime. Good fucking luck getting any company that wants to actually make money to invest in nuclear.

The only reasonable argument left for nuclear is the baseline and storage argument, but again the writing is on the wall, industry can see the trajectory that batteries and storage tech is on and know that by the time they spend 2 decades investing in current gen nuclear, it will probably be beaten by storage in the free market anyway.

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