this post was submitted on 01 Nov 2024
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After they lost vughledar (not sure about the spelling) things got extra bad for Ukraine, that city was a very strong fortification, on elevated ground that ensured a lot of surveillance of the surrounding areas and as consequence of the strength of that portion was a crucial point of the supply line for the battle front of two neighboring cities. Russia took almost a year to take the city down, and the consequence is quite dire to Ukraine for not only they lost such a valuable position, but Russia, naturally, now has control of a very strong defensive position that allows powerful support of an extensive area. If you look at the map, from vughledar so Zaporozhye Ukraine will have a hard time defending, and that is no small area.
I'm expecting a general collapse of the AFU in the coming months.
Yeah I think that Russia will complete their control on Donetsk oblast, and maybe cross the river on the southern oblasts that they control half of it, and possibly just stand on the defense or slow down the attacks even further, so either Ukraine makes a silent armistice in the form of just not attacking anymore, allowing those territories to be more and more assimilated to Russia, or they'll keep limping along until there is nothing else left in the tank
It's also worth noting that the eastern parts are the ones where food production and industry are as well. So, once Russia move up to Dnepr, what's left of Ukraine is going to be even more reliant on the west to stay afloat.