this post was submitted on 07 Jun 2024
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United States | News & Politics
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This all comes down to how house broken Democrats are, because if they're properly trained they'll vote Biden despite hating him.
Indeed, and the fear of the orange man will likely be the main driving factor for the dem base.
The main problems I see are that for Biden to win, he needs not just the core "Blue No Matter Who" vote, but a broader coalition. In 2020, that included young people, and politically unaware people who were upset about COVID. In 2024, he's doing everything possible to alienate the youth (via support for genocide, and violence against protesters), and the politically unaware people are upset about the economy. Trump isn't any more popular than he was in 2020, this is entirely an own goal on the Biden campaign's part.
The other thing is that I expect Biden to spend a lot of time and money campaigning in states that don't matter to him electorally, as payment to his intra-party supporters. For example, South Carolina is solidly Republican and there is zero chance of Biden winning its electoral votes, but he will spend time campaigning there purely for the prestige it gives Jim Clyburn.