this post was submitted on 09 May 2024
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Collapse
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This is the place for discussing the potential collapse of modern civilization and the environment.
Collapse, in this context, refers to the significant loss of an established level or complexity towards a much simpler state. It can occur differently within many areas, orderly or chaotically, and be willing or unwilling. It does not necessarily imply human extinction or a singular, global event. Although, the longer the duration, the more it resembles a ‘decline’ instead of collapse.
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Well written and well researched article that is neither alarmist nor hopeful. The question is going to be how this house of cards collapses and when. I was sure it was going to be evergrande and Chinese property? Instead will we sleepwalk into another middle east war and this then joins with the Ukraine Russia way through proxies.
Are we looking at a financial event or the finances forcing us into a different event?
Evergrande and chinese property are just shufflings of abstract information in the form of money . the real economy is biophysical.
Expect waves of stagflation of various sizes and duration to be the principal form of economic collapse experienced by the working class. It doesn't have to come as a collapse just a slow grind across a lifetime of declining standards of living.
Maybe but I'm expecting some form of crash event as it snowballs. Staying with a slow steady decline seems less possible mathematically. Especially given levels of leverage
I also think there will be financial crashes, and likely more than one -- just as the last leveraged bubbles collapsed in 2008 and 2020. Of course, he is right that this will lead to them adopting an inflationary model to "solve" it, which will result in a worse version of the same dynamic with time. Eventually I think we will get the dreaded hyperinflation if it goes on long enough.
The wild card is that the demographic collapse and energy descent trends will be highly deflationary no matter what government does, but that's a longer term issue.