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Biden’s response to Jordan attack is likely to be powerful, but US is wary of triggering a wider war with Iran, officials say (www.cnn.com)

submitted 9 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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The US’ response to the drone attack in Jordan that killed and wounded US service members on Sunday is likely to be more powerful than previous American retaliatory strikes in Iraq and Syria, officials told CNN, though the Pentagon and White House are being careful not to telegraph the administration’s plans.

President Joe Biden is under increasing pressure to respond in a way that stops these attacks for good. Iran-backed militants have targeted US military facilities in Iraq and Syria over 160 times since October, and several Republican lawmakers have called for the US to hit inside Iran directly to send a clear message.

But the biggest challenge now for the Biden administration is how to respond to the drone strike – the deadliest attack on US forces in the region since the bombing at Abbey Gate killed 13 US service members in the closing days of the Afghanistan withdrawal – without sparking a regional war.

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[–] [email protected] 14 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (8 children)

“Every message you see talks about the fear of escalation from the administration,” said a former senior military official who has closely followed developments in the region. “We have managed to deter ourselves here.”

The funny thing is that here Biden's clear and very reasonable desire not to start a war appears to be working against him. Iran is willing to antagonize the USA in order to gain regional influence because it knows that the USA is not looking for a fight, but of course it's not really possible to deliberately elect a leader who convincingly appears to be warlike without actually being so.

Another problem is that Iran may not actually have the ability to order its proxies to stop. The groups it supports appear to genuinely believe in their stated goals; Iran has organized, trained, and armed them in order to expand its influence but they're not actually fighting for Iran. It has some degree of control over them but they have the motivation and the means to keep fighting even if their support is cut off.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 9 months ago

Yes and no. A policy of overwhelming force is more effective if your metric is a binary peace/no peace. However, when it fails, it fails catastrophically, and you find yourself in a war that you do not think was anywhere near worth starting.

Both the US and Iran are being very restrained at the moment, and no one wins if that changes to both sides going all out. In fact, from what I can tell, both sides are being dragged into this conflict against their will.

Plus, the US has other concerns. There is still a war going on in Ukraine, where, as far as I can tell, US support is much more vital to US security interests. And there is the evergreen spectre of a war in Taiwan that the US needs to maintain posture on.

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