this post was submitted on 12 Sep 2024
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I think this will almost certainly go beyond Ukraine. The best case scenario is that Russia will transfer advanced systems like hypersonic weapons and s400s to Syria, Iran, and Yemen. The worst case scenario is that Russia may conduct a strike directly in a NATO country. Putin previously said that the options Russia was considering included this eventuality, and he doesn't bluff as far as I know. If he's making such a statement publicly now, it means Russia already has a response prepared.
I guess they could also do something like destroying GPS satellites or undersea cables as well, which might be a better approach if they don't want to kill anyone in NATO countries while hurting them considerably.
I don't see many chances of the US backing down of striking Russia by use of Ukraine, specially as they likely accept their own propaganda that Russia won't or can't do anything, so we unfortunatelly might know soon enough.
I think that's less likely because it would piss off the whole world if Russia caused a Kessler syndrome.
While a Kessler syndrome wouldn't be pretty, recent studies determine that it wouldn't be as devastating or impacting to space flight or missions as has been previously thought, and would clear up relatively fast or easily.
Still wouldn't be recommended to try, though
Right, it's mostly just bad PR. I do expect Russia would do this in case of a direct conflict with NATO though. Western weaponry is very dependent on satellites, while Russian weapons tend to use laser guidance for targeting. So, losing satellites would be far worse outcome for NATO.